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Reviewing the NBA Draft Betting Options
2010-06-24

The annual NBA Draft is Thursday night, and with the drafts in every sport having become a major production of late, there is sometimes information overload. Still, with coverage in excess on a variety of sites across the web and so many experts offering their own “Mock drafts” beforehand, you can usually have a good idea of who will get picked and when going in. Of course, this can lead to betting profits. Let’s take a look at a number of the various betting options Sportsbook.com is showing for Thursday to see if we can’t pick out some line mistakes.
Now, I don’t proclaim to be an expert in the area of draft position, with potential and actual on-the-court production in college often viewed as two different things. Plus, I really know very little about the foreign players that infuse themselves into the draft each summer. Therefore, for the sake of this exercise, I will follow the lead of five different mock drafts I was able to find on the internet on Wednesday. These are popular sites that I refer to regularly to get accurate, updated news, stats, and more.
Let’s get right to the options:
Gordon Hayward - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -250
No (Picked 15th or Later): +175
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: In the five mock drafts, Heyward was picked no higher than 12th and off the lottery board in three of them. I believe coming from Butler will hinder his stock a bit from picking time. NO at +175 for me.
Patrick Patterson - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -170
No (Picked 15th or Later): +130
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Patterson was projected as a lottery selection in four of the five mock drafts, averaging about 13th. However, I don’t think he was all that productive in college and while nicely-sized at 6’-8”, isn’t a very good rebounder. NO once again.
James Anderson - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +130
No (Picked 15th or Later): -180
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I gotta trust the experts on this one. Only one of the mocks had him as a lottery guy, while he slipped to the bottom of the first round in two others. Despite his ability to score, I don’ see anyone taking a chance on him early.
Damion James - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +200
No (Picked 15th or Later): -300
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: For whatever the reason, the four-year college players don’t get anywhere near the respect as those that skip school early. James has a big athletic body but his career just wasn’t quite scintillating enough. NO.
Eric Bledsoe - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +200
No (Picked 15th or Later): -300
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Did you watch this guy struggle in the tournament shooting the ball? He’s only 6-1 and his offensive skills are limited. NO.
Avery Bradley - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -135
No (Picked 15th or Later): -105
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I’m somewhat surprised to see the odds on this one, as while Bradley has gotten favorable reviews of late, most projections show him going to Miami at #18. Gotta take a chance on NO at -105.
Wesley Johnson - Over/Under Draft Position
Over 4.5 (+200)
Under 4.5 (-300)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Johnson is a very athletic, prototype NBA small forward. His average draft position in the five mocks was 3.8 and in none of them did he drop below 4th. I’ll say he goes to the Nets at #3.
DeMarcus Cousins - Over/Under Draft Position
Over 4.5 (-250)
Under 4.5 (+175)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I don’t quite understand why Demarcus Cousins is rated below Derrick Favors on almost every draft board I see, but he is. I’m not going to fight it. I believe it comes down to the two at #4 with the T-Wolves and they go with Favors. OVER 4.5.
Luke Harangody - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -150
No +110
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: If the draft were based upon college production, Harangody would be a Top 5 pick. Unfortunately for him it’s not, and he is now on the fence for even getting selected. Still, I think his ability to score in a variety of ways, including getting to the line, will be the difference in hearing his name called. YES.

Jon Scheyer - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -200
No +150
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Again…this draft is not about what you did in college, it’s about what you can do as a pro. Scheyer is the perfect backup point guard and if Travis Deiner can make it in the NBA for many seasons, Scheyer certainly can. YES.
DaSean Butler - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -150
No +110
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: It’s unbelievable that a guy of Butler’s stature at West Virginia and in the Big East can be on the bubble for getting drafted but he is small for a forward, not a great shooter, and injured his knee at the Final Four. A NO on this wager.
Sherron Collins - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -160
No +120
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Very small but a good shooter and there may not be a better floor general out there. Collins will be drafted.
Scottie Reynolds - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes +175
No -250
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: As big-time as Reynolds was at Villanova over the years, his shooting stroke is somewhat unorthodox and he could be coming in a year that is deep in point guards. I’ll say NO.

Samardo Samuels - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -140
No +100
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Samuels’ college recruitment and entire career at Louisville was built around the term potential. At 6-8, 245 lbs., Samuels still boasts that potential. The draft is about potential. He gets picked.
Player to get Drafted First
DeMarcus Cousins -200
Greg Monroe +150
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I can’t see anyone passing on Cousins’ power game in favor of Monroe’s more finesse game. Cousins has a NBA body right now.
Player to get Drafted First
Al-Farouq Aminu -400
Gordon Hayward +250
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Besides fighting the stigma of being the “slow, white guy”, Heyward is up against a guy that is being described as one of the best athletes in the draft and young as well. If you’re willing to pay the -400, this should be a lock with Aminu.
Player to get Drafted First
Cole Aldrich +130
Ed Davis -180
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I’ve seen draft boards projecting Ed Davis as high as #7 to the Pistons. I’ve not seen anything showing Aldrich as a top 10. This seems to be a second straight prop where oddsmakers are putting the higher potential black player against the more consistent but not as explosive white guy. Davis is the man.
Player to get Drafted First
Patrick Patterson -300
Eric Bledsoe +200
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: This would seem to be an easy one based upon the price, but Bledsoe came out as a freshman while Patterson had three years at Kentucky. Both have their limitations, but I believe Bledsoe can become a better shooter. Patterson’s size limits him somewhat as a “tweener”. I’d be hesitant about laying the -300.
Player to get Drafted First
Damion James -120
Solomon Alabi -120
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Good prop here…James is the experienced and somewhat polished player who can step in right away. Alabi is the 7-1 player who could blossom later. If James gets beyond pick #20, Alabi is the winner on this prop, otherwise its James.
Total ACC Players drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (-130)
Under 4.5 (+100)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: This prop all hinges on where Gani Lawal or Greivis Vazquez get picked. There’s a good chance one of the two goes in the first round. With Favors, Aminu, Davis, and Alabi certain locks, I’ll go with over 4.5 I guess.
Total BIG East Players drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (+150)
Under 4.5 (-200)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: In my opinon, Devin Ebanks of West Virginia is a stretch for the first round and he would be the fourth Big East player chosen behind Johnson, Monroe and Dominique Jones. Under 4.5.
Total Kentucky Players drafted in the Lottery (Picked 1st to 14th)
Over 2.5 (-150)
Under 2.5 (+110)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Wall and Cousins are certified lottery players. I don’t believe Patterson or Bledso are. UNDER 2.5 with favorable +110 odds.
Total College Seniors drafted in the 1st Round
Over 2.5 (even)
Under 2.5 (-140)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: This really is a sad state for college hoops when the best hope for the number of first round seniors to go is three. Vazquez of Maryland and Pondexter of Washington are likely #2 and #3. I don’t think they both go. UNDER 2.5.
Total Duke Players drafted in the 1st and 2nd Round
Over 1.5 (even)
Under 1.5 (-140)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Wow…another interesting prop that highlights a problem in college basketball. Two of the main players from the national championship game might not get drafted. I think Scheyer does, Kyle Singler doesn’t. UNDER.
Quincy Pondexter - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round -200
2nd Round or NOT Drafted +150
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Averaged nearly 20 PPG at Washington and seems to be long enough and a good enough shooter to make himself a name as a scorer in the NBA. Seems worth a first rounder to me.
Lazar Hayward - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +250
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -400
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Hayward was on the first round projections of just one of the five experts. His stock has shot up a bit of late with some impressive workouts, but I still believe GM’s will be confused as to where he will play at the pro level. Second round.
Dexter Pittman - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +225
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -350
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Haven’t seen a single indicator showing Pittman in the first round, and I don’t think Texas will have three guys chosen in Round one.
Lance Stephenson - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round -140
2nd Round or NOT Drafted +100
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Having watched this guy a number of times at Cincinnati, I’m puzzled as to why his draft stock isn’t higher. He seems to have a game suited nicely for the pro level. I’ll say 1st round.
Stanley Robinson - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +130
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -180
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: A guy with size but somewhat lazy. I don’t think teams at the bottom of the draft are looking for that type of player. They can afford to take flyers. Not a first rounder.
2010 NBA Draft - Derrick Favors - He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Nets -150
Any Other Team +110
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I called for the Nets to take Wesley Johnson earlier so I’ll stick to that. Anyway, even if he does get drafted, trades are more and more common on draft night.
2010 NBA Draft - Wesley Johnson - He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Twolves -115
Any Other Team -125
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Johnson to the Nets, thus ANY OTHER TEAM.
John Wall - He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Wizards -1000
Any Other Team +550
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I don’t see why not…However laying -1000 is too rich for my blood.
Evan Turner - He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
76ers -300
Any Other Team +200
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Turner seems to be the consensus #2 pick and with his all-around offensive skills and solid defensive game, Philly would be crazy to trade him.

NBA: Milwaukee at Atlanta – Game 5
2010-04-28

The first four games of the NBA first round playoff series between Milwaukee and Atlanta went decidedly to the home teams. The Hawks have to hope that pattern continues tonight, as they welcome the Bucks to town for a pivotal Game 5 contest. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com figure the home dominance will continue, installing the Hawks as 9-point favorites.

The Hawks believed they had reached a point in their growth process that they should be thought of as serious Eastern Conference contenders at the very least. Instead they look very much like the Atlanta team of two years ago, still searching for its true identity against a Milwaukee club that has their best player on the sidelines in a suit.

It’s definitely frustrating,” guard Joe Johnson said Tuesday after the Hawks practiced for the pivotal fifth game. “We come into this situation talking so much about what we’re going to do—this and that, this and that—yet we haven’t done nothing. We haven’t done nothing we set out to do.”

Atlanta is a miserable road playoff team but returns home where the comfort level is more to their liking. The Hawks are 36-7 and 27-16 ATS at Phillips Arena, winning by 8.6 points per contest. Atlanta has won 14 consecutive home games and is 7-2 ATS in its last nine.

Milwaukee is receiving different contributions, which has helped them overcome the loss of Andrew Bogut. Dan Gadzuric has given valuable minutes off the bench and Carlos Delfino buried six 3-pointers in Game 4 to help the Bucks square the series. They are 27-12 ATS coming off a home game this season.

Sportsbook.com has Atlanta as nine-point favorites with total of 192 and they are 9-19 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite. Milwaukee is far from solid sports betting wager with 2-8-1 ATS mark as playoff underdogs.

TNT has this Eastern conflict at 8:00 Eastern and the Hawks are 16-6 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The StatFox Power Rating gives a decisive edge to the visiting Bucks, indicating Atlanta should only be favored by 2-points.

Basketball: ESPN Announcer swap offers betting chances
2010-01-21

Known for trying an occasional gimmick or two, tonight ESPN conducts its second annual flip-flop of its top announcing teams from college and pro basketball. Dick Vitale and Dan Shulman do a NBA game while Mike Breen, Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy will be calling a top college contest. To bettors at Sportsbook.com, this is really not a big deal as it won’t change the way they wager on the action. In fact, if you think about, it probably isn’t a big deal to anyone other than the gentlemen actually doing the flip-flopping. In any case, let’s take a look at the two games from a betting perspective. Head over to the LIVE ODDS & BETTING TRENDS pages afterward for more info on Wednesday basketball wagering boards.

Wake Forest at North Carolina 7 Eastern

The main story line to follow in the college contest figures to concern what is wrong with the Tar Heels. With a 12-6 record, North Carolina doesn’t deserve to be ranked in the Top 25 and their under-performing ways are further shone with 6-10 ATS record. Since returning to Chapel Hill, coach Roy Williams has never suffered a three-game losing streak, however the answers as to why they are bumbling are present.

North Carolina doesn’t value the possession of the basketball and despite trying to play a fast pace like previous Tar Heels teams; the guard play isn’t there to do so. Guards Larry Drew II and Marcus Ginyard are part of the reason North Carolina averages almost 17 turnovers a game and the front court players though talented, are not especially good at creating in the half court. Look for Wake Forest to dial up pressure from the opening tap, since the Tar Heels have fallen behind by 20 points in each of their last two games and are 7-20 ATS in ACC contests.

Wake Forest (12-4, 6-7 ATS) has issues of its own, mostly to do with shooting the rock. The Demon Deacons shot 45.3 percent from the field, however that number has been plunging, with three of last five outings below 40 percent. Wake Forest lacks consistent shooting beyond 18 feet and does much better when playing 94 feet. Off their 70-50 drubbing by Duke, Wake is 15-29 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games.

Sportsbook.com has North Carolina as a -6.5 favorite with total of 157.5. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Demon Deacons are 18-34 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring opponents by 8 PPG in their L52 games in the second half of the season.

Look for the NBA guys to really like Al-Farouq Aminu, a 6-foot-9 forward for Wake Forest, if he keeps working on his shooting.

Utah at San Antonio 9 Eastern

One thing hasn’t changed since Vitale used to do radio playoff games in the NBA after his college basketball duties were completed, the San Antonio Spurs are still a very good home team and Utah doesn’t do much in a visitor’s uniform.

The Spurs (25-15, 21-18-1 ATS) are 17-6 (13-9-1 ATS) at the AT&T Center, winning by 9.6 points per game. San Antonio doesn’t have the look of a team ready to compete for an NBA title, especially this month, with a 6-5 SU and ATS mark. Granted the playoffs are still a half a season away, but coach Gregg Popovich is still looking for answers now and down the road, even utilizing little used center Ian Mahinmi. The Spurs currently have rebounding deficiencies and a contributor with size could help.

Utah (23-18, 23-16-2 ATS) is 7-12 away from Salt Lake City, though is a competent 9-9-1 ATS. The Jazz have frequently been off key this season, though recent games have shown improvement, winning four of five and they are 5-0-2 ATS in last seven tries.

Utah has same identical record to Oklahoma City, tied for the last playoff position in the West. The team believes they have turned a corner and will start playing better basketball. “We've lost some games we should have won," Carlos Boozer said. "That being said, we're still right in the thick of things. If we can put together a nice little win streak, we can make up some ground." The Jazz are off a 119-112 loss to Denver as seven-point underdogs and are 10-3 ATS after a defeat.
The head-to-head series is dominated by the home team, which is why the Spurs are a 6.5-point favorite. The white clad team is 20-6 ATS and San Antonio is 16-5 ATS hosting the Jazz. These two teams have tended to play high scoring contests, thus keep an eye on the total of 194, since the total is 8-1 OVER in Southwest Texas.

The StatFox Power Lines for these games show North Carolina by 5, San Antonio a Pick

NBA Finals Wagering Preview
2009-06-04

“Do you believe in Magic?” Whether you like the original hit song by the Lovin’ Spoonful from 1965 and the countless times it has been used in television commercials or the updated version by Disney Channel’s Aly and AJ, the question remains the same. Do you believe in the Orlando Magic? Oddsmakers and most bettors don’t, instead choosing to side with the heavily favored Lakers (-260) for the series, according to Sportsbook.com.

Dwight Howard and his gang of long range bombers have certainly been up to the test, eliminating Philadelphia as expected, Boston as presumed (without Kevin Garnett) and Cleveland most unexpectedly. In many ways Orlando has grown up right before our very eyes.

The Magic gave away games to the Sixers and Celtics, yet closed out each on the road to advance. When LeBron James made thaumaturgy shot to save Cleveland in Game 2 of East Finals, Orlando could have suffered carry over, yet did not.

We have seen the maturation of Dwight Howard from somewhat passive Clark Kent to angry superstar, demanding the ball and when the pill came his way, put up exemplary numbers to lead his team. Even coach Stan Van Gundy, who has been come under much scrutiny (here for example), has grown as head coach, working out details with Howard and not letting ego get in the way and has his team four wins away from being NBA champions.

Do you believe in the Magic?

Oddsmakers, like those at Sportsbook.com don’t seem to, making the Lakers -260 favorites to take the series. The most popular exact game wager is Los Angeles in six (+220 bet). Others don’t necessarily see it that way.

Mark Lawrence of Playbook.com offered this about The Finals - “Interesting technical aspects conflict in this matchup. The Lakers have been miserable in championship finals the past two rounds, going 3-8 SU and 0-10-1 ATS. On the flip side they've pushed the Magic around in the series, going 29-10 SU and 24-12-1 ATS, despite dropping both games this season. The feeling here is it would be no surprise if either team wins.”

Also made a call to Joe Nelson of Nellysports.com, who is on the Playbook roster and he gave his insights. “The Magic made at least ten 3-point shots in all four games against the Lakers in the regular season the last two years, winning three of the four games. Orlando shot over 40 percent in the Eastern Conference Finals and if they continue to shoot well from long-range, the Magic will win this series and become the NBA champions.”

Nelson added, “The Lakers are a heavy favorite for the series but with the Magic winning twice in Los Angeles in the regular season (last two years), it would not be a surprise to see Orlando steal one of the first two games. Much like last season the Finals will feature extreme coast-to-coast travel with over 2,500 miles separating these venues. The Lakers went 0-6 ATS in Finals last season and Los Angeles was just 5-5 ATS in home contests in the first three rounds of the playoffs. With two impressive wins to wipe out Denver in the Western Conference Finals the Lakers have alleviated some of the concerns raised early in the playoffs but this will be a tough match-up for Los Angeles and Orlando has the talent and versatility to be a serious threat in the series despite the solid underdog status.”

Orlando has given several reasons to like them. The Magic are 12-7 in the playoffs and after dropping first four games to Philly as favorites, they are 11-4 ATS since. Orlando is 5-5 SU and ATS on the road under postseason pressure and 32-19 straight up and against the number for the entire season. Hedo Turkoglu and the fellas can play with teams scoring bundles of points, because of perimeter shooting and are 16-4 ATS in road games versus offensive clubs scoring 103 or more points a game.

The Lakers have shown unwillingness to go all out until necessary since the playoffs started, which could prove fatal against Orlando. Denver made a ton of long range shots in first four encounters against Lakers, due to poor defensive rotations. Derek Fisher is still defensive liability and Lamar Odom; it depends which multiple personality shows up at game time. Howard has the strength and power to push around Pau Gasol and draw fouls expediently on Andrew Bynum.
“Do you believe in Magic”

Steve Makinen of StatFox.com thinks Orlando can cause Phil Jackson’s squad trouble, just not enough to wager against them. “Last I saw, Orlando swept this regular season series, while the Lakers took both games from the Cavaliers. In my opinion, oddsmakers have inflated the line of Game 1 of the NBA Finals by at least 1-1/2 points, installing L.A. as a 6-point favorite. If you recall last year, Los Angeles was overwhelmed in the finals by an outstanding defensive club in Boston. While Orlando isn’t quite as good overall or defensively as that team, the Magic are still strong enough to compete and possibly win this series. In the end I figure it comes down to how well Orlando shoots it from the perimeter. If it’s anything like the regular season in which the Magic made 12 3-point shots in each game versus the Lakers, they will win. However, I think the series format of home court advantage (2-3-2) favors L.A., and that will be the deciding factor.”

Everything since being humiliated 131-92 in Game 6 at Boston last year has pointed to this for Los Angeles. The Lakers are well-rested and are 8-1 ATS when playing only their second game in seven days this season. Gasol showed his wherewithal in making big baskets in Games 5 and 6 against Denver and could force Howard into foul trouble if he becomes overaggressive.

Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu are primarily perimeter players and if Odom shows up mentally and Trevor Ariza continues to distinguish himself, the Lakers should be able to hold down the scoring of this duo. On the other end of the floor, Odom can be a handful for either, with inside and outside capabilities. The Lakers bench has become increasingly more useful, as the dates have come off the calendar since the end of the regular season. Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton have all given efficient minutes since mid-May.

Then you have the “Kobe” factor. Bryant was denied ring he so dearly wants last season and has been on a mission since. He’s still selfish from time to time, however, in the last couple of years, that has had more to do with desire to win, than just wanting to improve image. Whether it is Courtney Lee or Mickael Pietrus trying to defend Bryant, he should school them individually and carve up Magic defense when they try and double team with his crisp, accurate passes.

Lastly, is the coaching difference. Phil Jackson was strangely out-maneuvered by Doc Rivers last spring, however in hindsight, Boston had more players motivated towards a cause and Rivers pushed all the right buttons with what was a better team. Jackson was at his best against Denver. After getting a read on exactly what the Nuggets were doing, he had his team effectively took away what Denver did best in last two games and Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were disabled after strong beginning.

Like any coach, when things are going well, they look smart, when they don’t, it’s about how they react. If the Magic lose first two games at Staples Center, does the surly side of Van Gundy return? If the Lakers are able to deny Howard touches, does that create more friction between Superman and the coach? It has been Van Gundy’s M.O. to micromanage when situations become stressful, how will he respond? This could be telling factor in this series.

The action starts Thursday night on ABC, with Lakers as 6.5-point favorites and total of 206. Before placing wager, know the underdog is on 6-0 ATS roll.

Do you believe in the Orlando Magic?

NBA: Eastern Conference Powers Collide
2009-04-06

For bettors and handicappers that are having a good year in the NBA, last night's Cleveland at Washington matchup might have been the easiest layup of the entire season. Cleveland was on a 13-game winning streak, yet had only covered the spread five times. The Wizards have been among the worst teams in the NBA all season and the Cavaliers had this little tussle with, what's the name again, oh yea Orlando, who is tied with Boston for the second fewest losses in the Eastern Conference at 19.

While it would have almost impossible to predict Washington would win outright on their home floor 109-101 as 9.5-point underdogs, a vast number of people took the oddsmakers opening number of -10.5 and hit the Wizards with authority.

While no coach player or team will admit to looking ahead, because "we play them one at a time" (insert fingers into throat), all the Orlando players must have had the same virus as Cleveland on Wednesday night, when they lost at home for just the eighth time this season to Toronto (the mighty purple dinosaurs) as 10-point home favorites 99-95.

This sets up tonight's encounter for the Cavs and Magic, with both having been pointing towards this game and each having a heighten sense of urgency trying to avoid consecutive losses.

"We've been taking a lot of things for granted," Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy said talking about his team's recent efforts. "We've got a real tough stretch coming up here, and if we continue to play like this, it could get real ugly. . Hopefully, it will serve as a wake-up call."

Orlando (55-19, 47-27 ATS) hasn't taken much for granted this year and are 13-5 ATS after one or more losses and 18-8 against the spread if they failed to cover. Prior to being upset by Toronto, the Magic had won nine of 10 (7-3 ATS) and its only real failure being not meeting the coach's high expectations.

Let's be honest, it's hard to come down on Cleveland (61-14, 44-31 ATS). Throw the loss to Washington in the garbage disposal. It is true they have not been covering as many spreads of late as oddsmakers have assigned larger figures and some of the opponents don't exactly light the emotional fire. With the Cavaliers 13-4 ATS when playing on back-to-back days this season, all of the peripheral stuff goes away.

Sportsbook.com has established Orlando as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 188. The teams have traded home court wins this season, with the Magic owning both covers and overall, Orlando is 8-1 and 6-3 ATS since 2006-07 season.

Orlando lost the last meeting just over two weeks ago and is 16-6 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent and is 17-6 ATS if they lost their last game by six or fewer points. Dwight Howard and teammates are 14-4 UNDER versus teams scoring 99 or more points a game in the second half of the season.

Part of the reason Cleveland struggles with Orlando is all the deep shooting they do. The Cavaliers are 6-15 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots a game in the latter part of the season. Part of the failure is LeBron James and his mates have built up big leads and teams just fire away trying to close the gap, however in the Magic's case it is by design and they haven't handled the situation well. The Cavs are 22-11 UNDER after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.

This engaging contest will be viewable on ESPN starting at 8 Eastern and know this; Cleveland is 12-0 ATS off a road loss this season.

StatFox Power Line- Orlando by 6

NBA: Top Weekend Power Trends 1/23-1/25
2009-01-23

After Boston’s upset of the Magic in Orlando on Thursday night, all three top teams in the East are separated by a game and a half in the standings heading into this weekend’s play. That’s not only big because the race for home court advantage in the conference figures to come down to the season’s last week, but also because the East has yet to name its coach for the February 15th All-star Game. Phil Jackson of the Lakers will lead the West, but Celtics head man Doc Rivers is ineligible, leaving Cleveland’s Mike Brown and Orlando’s Stan Van Gundy to duke it out for the honor. The decision comes down to whether or not Cleveland can win in Golden State Friday night. That is just one of many intriguing NBA games on tap for this weekend. Here’s a quick look at some of the action along with a set of Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider.

On Friday night, ESPN takes a break from its doubleheader schedule by slicing it in half. The only nationally televised game scheduled is Dallas visiting Detroit. The Mavericks will try to rebound from a 34-point pasting at Milwaukee on Wednesday. The Pistons have won back-to-back games since losing their prior five. At home, Detroit is just 7-13 ATS in ’08-09, and against the West, just 7-10 ATS. Elsewhere on Friday, the Bucks visit Atlanta, the Nets take on San Antonio, and the Cavs visit the Warriors. That game may seem easy on paper based upon the 19-game win difference this season, but keep in mind that the Warriors are 19-6 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons.

On Saturday, the betting board is light in the NBA with just six games, and only two of the games involve teams that are considered playoff contenders. Those contests are Orlando at Miami and Cleveland at Utah. The Magic will try to shake off the disappointment of Thursday’s loss to the Celtics. Their chances are good too, as Miami is on a 7-19 ATS slide at home versus teams with winning records, and the Magic have won 10 straight games in the head-to-head series. Speaking of series domination, that will also be the story in Utah, where the Cavaliers will be looking to extend a 7-2 SU & 9-0 ATS run vs. the Jazz.

Finally, on Sunday, the NBA takes center stage on your TV dial with ABC bringing a daytime doubleheader and ESPN wrapping it up with an evening contest. In all there are nine games. The ABC two-pack features Dallas visiting Boston in the opener and the Lakers hosting the Spurs in the late game, as the league’s top two teams host foes. The ESPN telecast starts at 6:35 PM ET, and features Houston at Detroit. The Rockets were 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS vs. the Central Division this year heading into the Friday night game at Indiana.

Now, here’s a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends alluded to earlier.

Friday, 1/23/09
(851) PHOENIX vs. (852) CHARLOTTE
PHOENIX is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) vs. poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game this season. The average score was PHOENIX 101, OPPONENT 102 - (Rating = 2*)

(855) HOUSTON vs. (856) INDIANA
INDIANA is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) in non-conference games this season. The average score was INDIANA 111.2, OPPONENT 113.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(855) HOUSTON vs. (856) INDIANA
HOUSTON is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 95.9, OPPONENT 88.8 - (Rating = 1*)

(863) NEW JERSEY vs. (864) SAN ANTONIO
NEW JERSEY is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW JERSEY 88.7, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 2*)

(867) CLEVELAND vs. (868) GOLDEN STATE
Don Nelson is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) at home against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) as coach of GOLDEN STATE. The average score was Nelson 110.5, OPPONENT 105 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 1/24/09
(501) NEW YORK vs. (502) PHILADELPHIA
NEW YORK is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points this season. The average score was NEW YORK 102.9, OPPONENT 102.9 - (Rating = 1*)

(503) ORLANDO vs. (504) MIAMI
ORLANDO is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3PT shots/game this season. The average score was ORLANDO 103.1, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 4*)

(509) CLEVELAND vs. (510) UTAH
CLEVELAND is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) vs. good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 94.6, OPPONENT 91.9 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 1/25/09
(803) SAN ANTONIO vs. (804) LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 105.7, OPPONENT 100.1 - (Rating = 1*)

(805) PHOENIX vs. (806) ATLANTA
PHOENIX is 67-37 ATS (+26.3 Units) in road games against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51%-60%) since 1996. The average score was PHOENIX 100.5, OPPONENT 99.5 - (Rating = 1*)

(815) UTAH vs. (816) DENVER
UTAH is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 3+ PPG over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UTAH 102.4, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 1*)

(817) LA CLIPPERS vs. (818) GOLDEN STATE
GOLDEN STATE is 8-20 ATS (-14 Units) in home games against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 115.3, OPPONENT 110.9 - (Rating = 1*)