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NBA: Orlando still favored, just by less in Game 4
2009-06-11

The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Speaking of which, Thursday’s Game 4 brings a bit lower pointspread (Orlando -3) and a bit higher total (201). See how bettors have reacted to these oddsmakers adjustments on the BETTING TRENDS page.

Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)

This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as Sportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.

Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.

For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.

Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.

Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.

Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.

Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.

NBA: Game 3 brings big-time revenge angles
2009-06-10

The Lakers and Magic head to Orlando to resume their NBA Finals’ series, with Game 3 coming Tuesday night. Judging by the numerous angles focused on the concept of revenge, we should expect the Magic to climb back into the series in a lower scoring game. Take a look at some of these revenge trends as we preview the game, then head on over to the GAME MATCHUP page for more key betting information. Orlando is a 4-1/2 point favorite, but according to the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends, only 52% of bettors are leaning that way, a low percentage for this magnitude of a game.

By now everyone knows the Lakers head to Orlando with a 2-0 lead, but if the Magic’s botched layup/missed goaltending call at the end of regulation had been scored, this series would be tied 1-1. That is all the difference in the world according to history, as only three teams have ever come back from this deficit to win the NBA Finals, most recently the Miami Heat in 2006.

The “comfortable” lead has not changed Kobe Bryant’s focus however. Bryant has a promise for Game 3 on Tuesday night.

"We're about to kick it up," he said. "You'd better believe it. We're close. You see what I'm saying? This is the finals. We're going to be ready to go."

Courtney Lee missed a wide-open, alley-oop layup that would have won Game 2 at the fourth-quarter buzzer Sunday night. It was another chapter in a long history of Magic misery, one that now has them 0-6 in finals games.

Orlando has been able to come back from seemingly every heartbreak this season - injuries, four last-second losses in the playoffs and series deficits in two rounds. But this could be too tough a challenge.

"We've just got to go home and take care of business," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "The Lakers did a good job of protecting their home, and now it's our turn to do the same thing. We've been in some tough situations. We've just got to fight our way out."

The Magic would need quite a turnaround. Their backcourt has been dreadful. Rafer Alston and Jameer Nelson, who returned for the finals after being out since early February because of shoulder surgery, were so inconsistent that Van Gundy benched them for most of the fourth quarter to have 6-foot-10 forward Hedo Turkoglu run the point.

The Magic had 20 turnovers, just 22 assists and no true ballhandler to make the Lakers pay for double-teaming Howard.

Don’t consider the series over yet however. One of the streakiest teams in the league all season, Orlando has shot well at home. It plays with a carefree attitude, and Bryant says that's reason to be wary.

"This is a very loosey-goosey team we're playing against," he said. "You seen some of the shots they hit. Those are tough shots - supposed to be tough shots. For them it's like shooting fish in a barrel. They're just thinking about Game 3, and so are we."

As mentioned in the opening, one of the key handicapping concepts backing the Magic for Game 3 is REVENGE. Orlando boasts several Top StatFox Power Trends focused on this motivation. Including the Game 2 Magic ATS win and UNDER result, here are a few of the revenge angles that will be in play for Tuesday’s Game 3:

* ORLANDO is 33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 102.2, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
* ORLANDO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 100.9, OPPONENT 100.5 - (Rating = 1*)
* ORLANDO is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 101.6, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 1*)

The Lakers have been a solid bet as a road dog though. Over the last two seasons, they are 24-12 ATS in that role.

In terms of the total, revenge for Orlando may also play a role in taking this game UNDER the posted number of 198:

* ORLANDO is 26-15 UNDER (+9.5 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 101.6, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 1*)

Tip time is set for 9:00 PM ET on ABC.

NBA: Orlando looks to even the score (8:05 PM ET, ABC)
2009-06-08

The great thing about the NBA Finals is no matter how magnified a blowout win or loss is, it only counts for one game. The Los Angeles Lakers showed in Game 1 against Orlando why they were favored to win the NBA title, with conclusive 100-75 mauling. This was the third consecutive full team effort from the Lakers, who might be finally matching everyone’s expectations. Orlando will try to bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday night. Most bettors don’t believe they will, as with the pointspread set at Lakers -6.5, over 90% of the early action goes that way according to the BETTING TRENDS page.

If Kobe Bryant continues with the “mean face” he might land a few minor acting roles as villain or thug. The way he played in the series opener, he might be on his way to MVP after scoring 40 points, while dishing out eight assists and snaring the same amount of rebounds. It was rather evident, Bryant was setting the tone for the Lakers intensity and anybody wearing a gold uniform that wasn’t going to play hard, might as well grab some bench or face the wrath of Kobe the Terrible.
The Los Angeles defensive game plan was brilliant, holding Orlando to 29.9 percent shooting. The Magic are unlikely to shoot as woefully again in the series, nonetheless the difference between how Cleveland defended Orlando’s long range shooters and what the Lakers did was clear. The Cavaliers defense is more structured and is not as good straying 20 feet away from the rim. Los Angeles, when focused, has the athletes and length to contest three point shots and when Orlando players give ball-fakes and drive to basket, a number of tall Lakers are part of the greeting committee.

That was the Lakers first cover of a NBA Finals game in last dozen tries (1-10-1 ATS) and it does not guarantee they will cover the 6.5-point spread at Sportsbook.com for next contest. Since 1997, the last 20 teams that won by 10 or more points are only 12-8 and 10-8-2 ATS in next contest.

You have to chuckle about what teams say about injuries. Jameer Nelson was either “definitely out” or “will not play under any circumstances”, yet a guy wearing number 14, with “Nelson” on a back of deep water blue Orlando jersey played better than 23 minutes in the opening contest. Coach Stan Van Gundy may have opened the Pandora’s Box in letting Nelson play so much, as Rafer Alston was rendered useless. Alston is smart enough to know Nelson is a better shooter, probably a better playmaker, but it was he who took over the squad at the point guard and helped bring the team into the Finals.
Nelson was immediately effective upon hitting the floor, however after about the six minute mark of playing; he was ineffectual like the rest of his teammates. Van Gundy has potentially hazardous situation to workout.

The Magic got away a little too quickly from the big man in the middle, when the game was still within reach just before the midpoint of third quarter. Dwight Howard totaled six shots, with ONE make and was 10 for 16 from the charity stripe. Orlando offense works best most nights when they play inside-out, giving the touches the broad-shouldered one has requested. The Magic are 15-4 ATS off a road loss and 14-3 against the spread if it is by double digits.

Orlando complained outwardly about not being mentally ready, but what they were really saying they weren’t ready for was Kobe and the Lakers actually prepared to play 48 minutes. The Magic have had two days of preparation to make adjustments and forgettable loss is easy to shake for a team that is 13-5-1 ATS who about 71 hours between assignments.

Phil Jackson will presume Howard will see the ball with a higher frequency and be more aggressive in taking it to the hoop. His players might need to be a few inches even closer in second encounter, with Orlando likely hitting more of their shots. Offensively, keep attacking the Magic off the dribble and have motion that sets up Lamar Odom and Luke Walton for interior baskets. The Lakers also are very solid off two days of rest with 8-2 ATS mark.

The total has been reduced to 202 and L.A. is 12-2 UNDER as a postseason favorite. You have to figure the Magic bunch can’t play any worse and are 20-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200.

The start time Sunday for Game 2 moves up an hour to 8 Eastern and Hedu Turkoglu and the guys will have to bring more game if they expect to improve upon recent 7-2 ATS run.

NBA: Can Orlando closeout Cavs at home? (8:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-05-29

From sweaty t-shirts printed, to songs from Cold World and Non Phixion, the story is all the same – Refuse to Lose. That is what the Cleveland Cavaliers did at home and they live to play again in Game 6 in Orlando. The chief architect was a familiar face, LeBron James and while he deserves the king’s share of credit, he hardly did it by himself this time. His team will look to force a deciding Game 7 contest on Monday with a win in Orlando Saturday night. The Magic opened as a 2-point favorite at Sportsbook. Follow the line and betting action right up until tip-time.
The focus on news outlets was James triple-double; however this time he had comrades in arms, who were ready to seize the moment. LeBron was also helped by the fact his coach Mike Brown, made adjustments prior to the game, which kept the Magic off-balance and could play into how long this Eastern Final continues.

Cleveland started the game with best ball movement of the series, having all five players on the floor involved and it paid immediate dividends with both Mo Williams and Delonte West making shots and restoring their confidence. Of course with Orlando, take nothing for granted and by halftime, the Cavaliers 17-point lead had melted faster than a Disney snow cone in June, with Cleveland up by just a single point after 24 minutes.

The third quarter was back and forth, with Orlando showing why they were 17-4 ATS playing as underdog coming into Game 5 and held slim one digit lead after three quarters.

With Cleveland 6-1 ATS in last seven games after breaking century mark in points, it was James will that did not allow his team to lose. After receiving much credit for guarding LeBron well, Orlando’s Mickael Pietrus more resembled Wally Szczerbiak trying to contain James. When LeBron needed to score he did, when he needed to find open shooter, he did and this time his teammates responded.

Coach Brown added a new offense wrinkle that widened the area James had at the top of the key, giving him more freedom to roam than a person wanting breakfast at dinner time at IHOP. This spacing prevented effective Orlando double-teams and set up Cleveland shooters to “walk into” shots in rhythm. Because of how effective this adjustment worked, coach Ron Jeremy, whoops, Stan Van Gundy will have to come up with an answer to counter, otherwise this series heads back to Cleveland.

The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover four of their last five contests against the spread since 2007, winning by almost six points a game (5.8). Coach Brown and James, have their fingers crossed the Cavs guards have rediscovered shooting touch and reserve Daniel Gibson can come off the bench and supply double digits again. Cleveland is a two-point underdog at Sportsbook.com, with a total of 193, easily the highest of the series. The Cavs are 14-4 ATS after scoring 110 points or more and seemed resigned to the fact they have to outscore Orlando, rather than out-defend them.

This will be the Magic’s second opportunity in the postseason to clinch series at Amway Arena, having failed in same spot against Boston. Orlando is 10-1 ATS at home after a loss by 10 points or more and 14-2 against the spread in downtown Orlando after allowing 110 points or more two straight games. The Magic will have to bring sterner defense, as Cavs shot 50 percent from the field and the three-balls. Dwight Howard needs more than 10 attempts and he has to be more assertive on offensive glass then snagging three boards.

Rashard Lewis can’t be so passive and Rafer Alston can’t miss nine of 10 shots. Coach Van Gundy must talk about ball movement, since Orlando had as many assists (12) as LeBron did.

Game 6 should be fascinating on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern and totals players; here is a sterling system to consider - Play OVER when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points in the sixth game of a playoff series. (22-4, 84.6 percent L13Y)