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NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 3/5-3/7
2010-03-05

I know it…it’s easy to forget about the NBA at this time of the year. March is about college basketball, right? Well, the savvy bettor acknowledges every opportunity he is given and takes advantage if the situation warrants. With that in mind, the NBA board is loaded with 26 games this weekend, at least six each day. This weekend’s Top StatFox Betting Trends piece should help you separate some of the strong plays from the weak. Read on for a look at some of the featured action over the next three days, plus the list of the top trends you’ll want to consider as you build your wagering lineup.

On Friday, the weekend is kicked off with 11 different games, two of which will make up the ESPN doubleheader. In the first one, the Cavaliers will host division rival, Detroit. For whatever reason, Cleveland was strangely NOT on TNT Thursday night so this won’t be a back-to-back situation. LeBron & Co. have won four straight games, both SU & ATS, as they begin consecutive games against Central Division foes. For the record, they are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in division play this season. The Pistons are 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in that scenario. In the late game, New Orleans and San Antonio will get together for the second time in five days, with the Hornets looking to avenge a 106-92 loss on Monday at home. The Spurs are still trying to figure things out this season and despite being 10-games over .500, are just 7-14 ATS in their L21 games. Elsewhere, the red-hot Bucks will be in Washington, sporting an 18-3-1 ATS mark in their L22 games, including a 100-87 win over the Wizards on Wednesday. Also, watch for the Lakers in Charlotte, and the Mavericks, winners of their last nine games, hosting Sacramento.

On Saturday, there are nine games to choose from, including several with teams in back-to-back scenarios. Two that I mentioned earlier, the Bucks and Cavaliers, will go head-to-head in Milwaukee. HC Scott Skiles’ team boasts a 10-6 SU & 12-3-1 ATS mark on zero days rest while the Cavs are just 6-9 ATS. Also on Saturday, Atlanta will visit Miami. The Heat are scuffling a bit again, having lost four straight ATS. They are also just 12-17 ATS at home, plus 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS on the back end of back-to-back’s. In Memphis, the Spurs will come calling, with the Grizzlies trailing San Antonio by four games in the Western Conference standings.

Sunday is once again national TV day in the NBA, with three games set for the tube. On ABC at 2:30 PM ET, the Lakers will take on the Magic in Orlando. Obviously, the Lakers are in good shape in the West, leading the conference standings by 5-1/2 games entering the weekend over Dallas. However, HC Phil Jackson has to be concerned about this trend going forward: LA LAKERS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 94.9, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 1*). The Magic are playing well again and have lost just six times at home this season. A bit later on ESPN, Boston will host Washington. The Celtics are not playing well of late but did turn back Charlotte by 24 points on Wednesday and could be ready to turn the corner. Wrapping up the night are Portland and Denver. The Blazers boast a 4-1/2 game lead for the 8th and final playoff spot out West and have come alive by winning five of six games. They will have been off since Wednesday and boast a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS mark when playing on 3+ days rest.

Now, here’s a look at those top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider in your wagering action this weekend:

Friday, 3/5/2010
(807) NEW YORK vs. (808) TORONTO
NEW YORK is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp. scored >=100 points over last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 105.4, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(809) BOSTON vs. (810) PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) at home vs. good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/g over the L3 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 95.7, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(813) ORLANDO vs. (814) NEW JERSEY
ORLANDO is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 106.5, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(813) ORLANDO vs. (814) NEW JERSEY
ORLANDO is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) on Friday nights this season. The average score was ORLANDO 93.5, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(815) SACRAMENTO vs. (816) DALLAS
DALLAS is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was DALLAS 101.5, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 3/6/2010
(503) ATLANTA vs. (504) MIAMI
ATLANTA is 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 91.6, OPPONENT 93.3 - (Rating = 3*)

(505) NEW JERSEY vs. (506) NEW YORK
NEW JERSEY is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 92.3, OPPONENT 107 - (Rating = 4*)

(513) CLEVELAND vs. (514) MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 95.3, OPPONENT 102 - (Rating = 1*)

(517) INDIANA vs. (518) PHOENIX
PHOENIX is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) vs. poor teams outscored by 3+ PPG in 2nd half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 121.9, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 3/7/2010
(803) LA LAKERS vs. (804) ORLANDO
LA LAKERS are 23-8 UNDER (+14.2 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 103.1, OPPONENT 93.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) BOSTON
BOSTON is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ PPG this season. The average score was BOSTON 99.7, OPPONENT 95.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) BOSTON
WASHINGTON is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 93.8, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 4*)

(811) PORTLAND vs. (812) DENVER
DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DENVER 107.6, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 1*)

NBA: Denver tries to erase short skid
2010-03-03

After coming up empty in a pair of road games, the Denver Nuggets are probably looking forward to staying at home for a few days. Awaiting them in their return, however, will be one of the NBA’s hottest teams. The Nuggets will try to avoid matching their longest losing streak of the season Wednesday night against the Oklahoma City Thunder, winners of 12 of 14 (9-5 ATS). Sportsbook.com shows the Nuggets as 7.5-point favorites, with a total of 207.5.

During a two-game trip to face the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix, Denver (39-21, 28-29-3 ATS) suffered consecutive defeats for the first time since dropping three straight from Dec. 25-28. After falling 95-89 to the Western Conference-leading Lakers, the Nuggets lost 101-85 to the Suns on Monday night.

The Nuggets built a nine-point lead after one quarter but couldn’t recover after getting outscored 33-11 over the next 12 minutes, recording their lowest point total for any quarter this season. Star forward Carmelo Anthony missed 14 of 21 shots overall and finished with 17 points for his lowest output since Dec. 27. Denver is 4-12 ATS playing their third game in four days this season.

“We’re not happy now but a week from now, hopefully after we win a few home games, we will be happy,” coach George Karl said.

Winning the opener of their three-game homestand would probably make Karl very happy considering how his team performed in its previous meeting with the Thunder (36-23, 35-24 ATS) on Jan. 29. The Nuggets shot 40.3 percent while getting blown out 101-84 and the Thunder connected at a 51.9 percent clip as they snapped a five-game slide in the series. Kevin Durant scored 30 points and shot 12 for 19.
That was the first of 12 wins in a stretch of 14 games for Oklahoma City, which continued the surge with a 113-107 victory over Sacramento on Tuesday night and they are 19-10 ATS on the road this season.

Durant once again led Oklahoma City with 39 points, the 32nd time in 33 games he’s had at least 25. The All-Star forward has also scored at least 30 points in his last six meetings with Denver, averaging 32.3. However, Durant wasn’t completely pleased with the Thunder’s performance against the Kings after they allowed an opponent to reach the century mark for only the sixth time in 21 games.

“We’re satisfied with the win. Of course, we didn’t play the way we wanted to, but you’re going to have games like that,” Durant said. “I think that we did a better job of responding to that and coming out and scoring points and getting everybody involved, and we got stops when we needed them.” Oklahoma City is 21-11 ATS facing a team with a winning record this season.

The Thunder, winners of five of six on the road (3-3 ATS), hasn’t won in Denver since relocating to Oklahoma City from Seattle. The franchise has dropped five straight (three covers) at the Pepsi Center since March 28, 2007, including a 102-93 defeat Dec. 14. Anthony scored 31 points in that win and has averaged 30.8 points in the last six matchups with the Thunder, but an ankle injury kept him out of the loss in Oklahoma City in January.

The Nuggets bench could be a little thin in Wednesday’s game with reserves Chris Andersen (chronic patella tendinitis) and Ty Lawson (sprained left thumb) dealing with injuries, nevertheless they are 6.5-point favorites with total of 207 at Sportsbook.com. Denver is 23-12 ATS revenging a same season loss and 31-14 ATS against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years. Oklahoma City is a sharp 14-6 ATS as a road underdog, losing by less than a point per game this season.

This game is available at 9:00 Eastern in local markets and these teams have played OVER eight of last 10 contests.

The StatFox Power Line shows Denver by 3, well short of Sportsbook.com’s pointspread, perhaps indicating value on the Thunder.

NBA: Cavaliers at Celtics Betting Matchup
2010-02-26

The Cleveland Cavaliers ended their three game losing streak with a 105-95 non-cover over New Orleans Tuesday, next up is to a end losing skid that goes back years. Cleveland has made nine trips to Boston and has come up on the short end of the score each time. The last time the Cavs (44-14, 28-29-1 ATS) won at TD Garden was Jan. 3, 2007 and they are 6-3 ATS in those visits, which is little consolation unless you are a sports bettor. Cleveland is favored at Sportsbook.com, making it an interesting decision for those wagering.

There has been a great deal of doom and gloom surrounding Cleveland’s recent slide and the fact they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven, but a certain high profile Cavs player tries to put things into perspective.

“There are 82 games in the regular season. You’ll have ups and downs,” said LeBron James. “We’ve had way more ups than downs. We have the best record in the Eastern Conference and one of the best records in the league. You can go two or three games where you don’t win a game. That’s not our worries.”

Cleveland’s recent struggles have had to do with defense. Coach Mike Brown’s squad prior to last game had allowed 100 or more points in five of previous six contests. Before this, the Cavs surrendered that many points over a span of 26 games, showing the decline in effort. They will seek reversal and are 8-4 ATS off a victory.

Like anything in life, it could be worse, like being a loyal Boston Celtics (36-19, 21-33-1 ATS) bettor. Boston has won four of its last five, but for Celtics backers, betting the C’s is similar to getting a hot stock tip that the Hummer is coming back strong, with 8-18-1 ATS record since Dec. 27.

General Manager Danny Ainge was being barbequed in Boston until he made the bold moves to bring in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, which restored Celtics pride and brought a championship. This would have never happened had Boston lost the top pick in the draft in the lottery, which would have brought Kevin Durant and the Celtics would more likely resemble Oklahoma City, than the current model.

Like most GM’s in the NBA, do one thing right and you have a free pass for years. Ainge thought Rasheed Wallace would be good fit for the green and white and he probably more than any other player exemplifies what is wrong with Boston this season and in part explains why they are 3-8 ATS off a SU win.

No question injuries have played a part in Boston’s season and Paul Pierce is doubtful for this evening. The Celtics are 6-18-1 ATS at home and 1-7-1 ATS with a day between contests.

Sportsbook.com has Cleveland as 1.5-point faves and they are 7-3 ATS with one day of rest and they are 5-1-1 OVER this month after scoring 100 or more points. Boston has covered 17 of last 25 Thursday assignments and is 20-8 UNDER on this day of the week going back even further.

This confrontation of Eastern powers begins just after 8:00 in the East time zone and the home team is 16-1 SU, though just 8-8-1 ATS in previous 17 meetings. The StatFox Power Line shows the wrong team is favored: Boston by 1

Monday Means all Systems Go in NBA
2010-02-22

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, winners of 13 of 14 (11-2-1 ATS) and last four in a row, all on the road. They return home against Atlanta who is wrapping up its four game road trip, who has the edge? For the answer to this and other NBA betting edges, read on about today’s top system plays in professional hoops. Get the latest prices on all of Monday’s five games on the LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.

Chicago (-3, 201) at Washington

Even with an eye on next season already, Chicago Bulls’ players are focused on the present. The Bulls front office has made trades freeing cap space to go after at least one of the enticing free agents in the market place after the season, however the current collection of players have covered seven of eight and five in a row. For tonight’s matchup, the total draws the most attention since road teams with a total of 200 or higher, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, are 32-10 OVER since 1996.

Milwaukee (+1.5, 206.5) at New York

The New York Knicks have lost six straight and almost won as Tracy McGrady made his debut in the Knicks uniform, falling 121-118 to Oklahoma City Saturday night. Having lost three of four at home to Milwaukee, tonight’s situation does not set up much better as teams revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, are 43-70 ATS since 2004-05, including all six this year.

Indiana (+9, 208.5) at Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks have a run of the mill home record at 17-9; however they are positively disgusting or delightful, depending on what side you wager on them, with a league worst 6-20 ATS home record. Everything doesn’t figure to improve immediately, since home teams playing their fifth game in a week, with a win percent of 60 to 75 percent, playing a team with a losing record, are 20-55 the last 12 years.

Atlanta (+5, 196) at Utah

Both teams are playing their third game in four days, with one obvious distinction; Atlanta has lost their last two, while Utah has won not only previous two, but four in a row. That in theory at least gives the Jazz the edge as home teams covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-7 ATS.

NBA: Boston at Portland (10:30 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-02-19

The night cap on ESPN finds the Boston Celtics playing 2,500 miles from home in Portland. That distance hasn’t proven a problem of late though, as the Celtics have won four of their L5 games there. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com see that turning tonight though, with the Blazers playing as the 2-point favorites.

Boston (34-18, 20-31-3 ATS) got away with another subpar offensive game, beating the Los Angeles Lakers 87-86 on Thursday night. Ray Allen scored 12 of his 24 points in the third quarter against a Lakers team that was without injured star Kobe Bryant.

The Celtics, who were held under 90 points for the third time in four games, are hoping their new guard, Nate Robinson, can provide a boost. Boston received Robinson and Marcus Landry in a trade with New York on Wednesday, giving up Eddie House, J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker and a future conditional second-round pick. Bean-Town backers wouldn’t mind if Robinson helped them cover a few more pointspreads, since they are 1-7 ATS off a cover.

With Marcus Camby now in town, Portland (32-24, 31-24-1 ATS) has one of the league’s top defenders. Camby is expected to make his Blazers debut Friday, giving them a much-needed post presence. Looking to fill the void left by Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla - who are both out for the season due to knee injuries - Portland acquired Camby from the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday in exchange for Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw. He joins a team that is 2-5 ATS at home against clubs with a winning road record.

Camby was the defensive player of the year for the 2006-07 season and is a two-time member of the NBA all-defensive team. He’s looking forward to playing again with Portland point guard Andre Miller, his teammate on three playoff teams with Denver from 2003-05. “I love to play with Andre Miller because he is so unselfish,” Camby said.

Miller, though, may be without his backcourt mate, Brandon Roy, who is probable for this game because of a hamstring injury. After missing 15 of the previous 16 games, Roy tried to play against the Clippers on Tuesday night, but he ended up sitting out the second half of the Blazers’ 109-87 victory.

Roy is averaging a team-high 22.6 points. His injury caused him to miss Portland’s 98-95 overtime loss to Boston on Jan. 22. Allen hit a 3-pointer with 42 seconds left in OT, giving the Celtics eight wins in their last nine matchups with the Blazers.

Oddsmakers have made Portland a two-point favorite with total of 186.5. Boston is .500 playing with no rest this season and 3-7 ATS (1-4 ATS last five). With the Celtics lack of offense, they are 7-1 UNDER in last eight contests, including five in a row. Portland has been surprisingly undistinguished at home with a 19-11 record (.500 ATS). The Blazers are however 20-8 ATS on Friday’s and 6-1 OVER.

Boston is 8-2 SU and ATS against Portland with 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) mark at the Rose Garden. The StatFox Power Line shows a potential under-pricing, Portland by 6

NBA: Dallas at Orlando (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-02-19

NBA Friday finds two games on ESPN, with the first one matching the Dallas Mavericks and Orlando Magic. The new-look Mavericks aren’t commanding a whole lot of respect from oddsmakers, as they’ve been installed as 6-point dogs on the road for this one, according to Sportsbook.com.

Carron Butler isn’t off to a great start with the Dallas Mavericks, but he could be in line for a big game his next time out against one of his favorite opponents. The Southwest Division-leading Mavericks have split two games with their new players, with Butler shooting 31.3 percent (10 for 32) and averaging 14.0 points.

The veteran swingman, though, has excelled this season against Orlando (37-18, 26-25-4 ATS), averaging 27.0 points in two wins for Washington. He scored 31 points and hit a 19-foot jumper with 0.5 seconds left to cap a rally from 21 down in a 92-91 win Feb. 10 in his last visit to Orlando.

The Southeast Division-leading Magic remember that shot well. “He played for the Wizards, not Dallas so the Wizards beat us,” guard Vince Carter said. “Right now, it’s our next opponent and that’s just who’s in our way.”

Haywood could be the bigger factor Friday as he’ll try to contain Magic All-Star center Dwight Howard, who averaged 21.5 points and 15.0 rebounds going up against the former Wizards big man this season. Haywood, though, was also fairly productive with averages of 11.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in those games.

Dallas used strong defense against the league’s highest-scoring team to win 107-97 at home over Phoenix on Wednesday, unfortunately they are just 28-44 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.

Orlando opened a three-game homestand with a 116-91 rout of Detroit on Wednesday. Howard had 33 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocks in the Magic’s eighth win in 10 games. Orlando has had consecutive slow defense starts and they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games.

They finish this home stretch against two contenders, facing league-leading Cleveland on Sunday. The Mavericks and Cavaliers have both made major moves before the trade deadline, but Orlando is seemingly content with its roster.

“We wanna win a championship,” Howard said. “We can’t focus in on what other teams are doing. We have to focus in on what we’re doing to get better.” Part of what Howard and teammates have done IS win and they are 73-46 ATS having won two of their last three contests since 2007-08 campaign.

The Mavs have won five of six against the Magic (3-3 ATS), taking three straight in Orlando, all covers. Nowitzki is averaging 26.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists in those games for Dallas, which is trying to avoid its first three-game road slide. They are 13-5 OVER after scoring 105 points or more this season. Though not as dreadful as the Mavs, the Magic haven’t exactly had a lucky rabbit’s foot, with a 5-11 ATS mark when coming off a cover.

Sportsbook.com has the Mavericks receiving six-points with total of 201.5. Here is where it gets weird. Are you ready for this; Dallas hasn’t covered back to back games since Nov. 25-27, a span of 11 chances with no success.

This is the ESPN Friday night opener at 8:00 Eastern and Orlando is 10-1 UNDER on Friday nights this season. The StatFox Power Line shows Orlando by 11.